Philly Leader

Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler is poised for a significant achievement as the results of the NL Cy Young Award balloting are set to be announced. With a top-two finish anticipated, discussions have emerged about Wheeler's potential future induction into the Hall of Fame.

At 34, Wheeler's traditional statistics might not immediately suggest Hall of Fame candidacy. He has secured 103 wins and has been an All-Star twice. His expected second-place finish in this year's Cy Young voting would mark only his second appearance in the top five. Comparisons with past players like Don Mossi highlight that Wheeler may not yet align with historical legends.

However, contemporary evaluations suggest that comparing current pitchers to those from previous eras may not be suitable. If future Hall of Famers are measured against icons like Bob Gibson or Nolan Ryan, few modern pitchers would qualify after the likes of Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw retire.

An alternative evaluation method involves assessing pitchers over seven-year periods using Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This metric has historically identified many eventual Hall of Famers. According to FanGraphs, Wheeler leads in pitching WAR from 2018-2024.

Wheeler's recent performance includes being second in innings pitched since 2018 and third in strikeouts during that period. His postseason record also stands out with a notable ERA across playoff appearances. In addition, he earned a Gold Glove award in 2023.

Justin Verlander previously suggested that being among the best players of one's time should merit Hall of Fame consideration. By these standards, Wheeler could be considered one of his era's elite pitchers despite falling short by older metrics such as total innings or wins compared to historical figures like Gibson or Walter Johnson.

The debate around Hall of Fame inductions often revolves around maintaining the prestige associated with it. Some argue that more players should be inducted to match historical rates rather than fearing dilution of its legacy.

The evolution in evaluating starting pitchers has seen changes before, notably when rotations expanded from four to five men, affecting statistical outputs. As approaches continue to adapt, Wheeler might eventually serve as a test case for how modern pitchers are assessed for Cooperstown honors.